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To avoid severe service interruptions or outright collapse of mobile networks, the FCC's 2010 National Broadband Plan estimated that mobile users will need an additional 300MHz of spectrum by 2015 and an additional 500 MHz by 2020. Many industry insiders believe these estimates are actually low. The FCC now has the authority to conduct auctions to get that capacity into the hands of mobile carriers. The problem is that we don't have anywhere near that much usable spectrum left. The frontier is now closedBarely a blip a few years ago, mobile broadband is growing at an astronomical pace. AT&T reports that since offering the iPhone on its networks in 2007, data volumes had increased by 8,000 percent by 2010. According to a report last week from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (PDF), mobile data traffic will increase twenty-fold between 2010 and 2015.
Existing networks simply cannot handle that increased demand without access to more bands of usable radio spectrum, That would have been easy in the old days, Radio frequencies were plentiful, and users were few and far between, But as George Mason University economist Thomas Hazlett j balvin iphone case noted last week in Washington, after 85 years of handing out spectrum licenses, often at minimal charge to the licensee, the U.S, has run out, We don't have 500 or even 300MHz of usable spectrum left to auction, at any price, Today's available inventory is closer to zero..
While technological innovation expands the range of usable frequencies, there's no doubt among engineers and policymakers that as things stand today, mobile users will soon hit a very unforgiving wall. The "frontier" is closed, just as historian Frederick Jackson Turner concluded about the American West in 1893. Going forward, spectrum will no longer be allocated. It can only be reallocated. How have we come so perilously close to running out of spectrum? Part of the problem has to do with the FCC's increasingly outdated licensing system. Assignments have historically been based on transient and idiosyncratic criteria that favored once-promising new applications and technologies (e.g., UHF television, pagers, satellite radio).
This "command and control" model has resulted j balvin iphone case in a badly splintered and increasingly unmanageable allocation table of more than 50,000 localized licenses, Many of these licenses arbitrarily limit their use of spectrum to applications that have faded or disappeared, but there's no easy mechanism for reclaiming spectrum that could be put to better use, The FCC doesn't even have a working inventory of all its licenses, (The federal government itself holds vast swaths of spectrum, much of it warehoused, but no central authority has the power to free up under- or unused bands.)..
New auctions aim to dislodge underutilized frequenciesIn the 1990s, the FCC finally shifted to an auction model, removing some of the whimsy from the process and, not incidentally, generating billions of dollars for the Treasury. But the agency still has a hard time resisting old temptations. Instead of picking winners and losers directly, the FCC now attaches conditions or limits auction eligibility to micromanage emerging markets and industries--or try to in any case. One result of this tinkering has been that several recent auctions failed to meet their reserve price.
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